Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
