Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
